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Description
Live win probability and a minute-by-minute win-probability timeline for FotMob match pages. FotStats adds a live win-probability layer to match pages on fotmob.com. Open any match and a small pill appears in the corner of the page with the score and the current probabilities. Click it for the full card: • Live win probability — the chance of a home win, draw or away win, updating as the match plays. • Minute by minute — how those probabilities moved across the whole match, with markers for every goal and red card. Because the model reconstructs each minute from the match data rather than tracking it as it happens, the timeline works on matches that finished last season just as well as on one you opened at minute 70. Nothing has to be missed. HOW IT WORKS Probabilities come from a Poisson scoring model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. It starts from a baseline built from the league table — goals scored and conceded relative to the league average — then blends in what the match itself is producing, using FotMob's own shot-by-shot expected goals. Red cards, the current scoreline and the time remaining all adjust the estimate. For Premier League matches, the league table is rebuilt from twelve seasons of historical results as it stood on the day of kickoff, so a match from last January is priced on what was actually known at the time. The extension is honest about its limits. It has no player-level information, no lineups, no injuries and no market odds — and it tells you which baseline it used, so you can see how much it actually knows. PRIVACY FotStats collects nothing. It sends no data to any server, has no analytics and no accounts. It reads only the match data the FotMob page has already loaded, keeps it in your browser's session storage, and discards it when the tab closes. It also leaves the site alone. The overlay is drawn in its own isolated element outside FotMob's own page structure, it never modifies their content, and it renders nothing at all when there is no match data to show. NOT AFFILIATED FotStats is an independent project and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to FotMob.